The year 2020 is a special year for Bitcoin as in May the third Halving in the history of Bitcoin will take place. A very strong bull market is expected following this event based on what happened in 2012 and 2016 during the two previous Bitcoin Halvings.
Bitcoin started the year 2020 with a price of $7,200 and had a pretty exceptional January in which its price gained 30%. At the end of the month, its price was $9,300.
The approach of the Halving but also some unexpected world events, such as the imminent risk of a war between the United States and Iran or the coronavirus crisis, justify this historic January 2020 for Bitcoin.
For many, Bitcoin has now entered a bullish phase and as soon as the price of Bitcoin rises above $10K again, nothing will be able to stop the increase in its price.
Given the scarcity of Bitcoin, more and more people are finally starting to realize that owning 1 whole Bitcoin could make them extremely rich in the future.
The race to own 1 Bitcoin is now on and time is running out if you want to get there before it’s too late.
Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin to be comparable to a commodity such as gold. Bitcoin therefore exists in finite quantities, since it is limited to 21 million units.
The production of new Bitcoins slows down over time as a result of automatic events called Halving.
Currently, 12.5 BTC are newly created and offered as a reward to miners validating a transactions’ block in the Bitcoin Blockchain.
After the Halving of May 2020, the reward will decrease to 6.25 BTC.
The Halving process is written into the Bitcoin source code and by 2140 all Bitcoins will have been mined.
When all Bitcoins have been mined, we will have 21 million Bitcoins available for all the people on Earth.
In fact, there may be even less, since it is estimated that nearly 3 million Bitcoins have already been lost permanently.
This would only make Bitcoin even scarcer and more important to own at least one.
The latest estimates published by the United Nations indicate that the Earth’s population is expected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.
Estimates do not extend to 2140, but the world population could be even larger by then.
Taking the United Nations estimates of 2100 as a reference, this would give us a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins for 11.2 billion people.
There will be a maximum of 1 Bitcoin for 533 people.
Assuming that there is an equitable distribution of Bitcoin for each inhabitant of the Earth, each inhabitant could own a maximum of 0.001875 BTC.
Bitcoin is already establishing itself as a reserve of global value.
Phase 2 of its adoption has begun with merchant support for transactions that is expected to develop in the coming years.
If Bitcoin reaches phase 3 of its mass adoption by becoming a unit of account, we would be at the beginning of the hyperbitcoinization of the world that many Bitcoiners fantasize about.
People owning 1 Bitcoin in its entirety would therefore have a significant advantage over the majority of the world’s other inhabitants.
Owning 1 full copy of something that is likely to become as in demand as Bitcoin in the future is something you can’t pass up.
I don’t know if Bitcoin will succeed or not in its revolution. Nevertheless, I don’t want to take the risk of missing out on this revolution if Bitcoin succeeds.
If you are sensible people, I imagine that you don’t want to miss such an opportunity for your future either.
As the month of February 2020 begins, I find it interesting to take a closer look at the distribution of Bitcoin by addresses on its Blockchain:
After analyzing this distribution, you must have noticed that only 631,814 addresses have at least 1 Bitcoin.
Since people may have several addresses with Bitcoin, it is possible that people may have several addresses with amounts less than 1 BTC but whose cumulative amount exceeds 1 BTC.
Nevertheless, it is quite conceivable that less than 1 million people own at least 1 Bitcoin on Earth.
By making the decision to buy 1 full Bitcoin, you will de facto become part of the 2.18% richest Bitcoin addresses.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong shares the same analysis as many Bitcoiners:
“For better or worse, I do think owning one whole Bitcoin will increasingly become a big deal. Only 21M will ever be produced, and some people already own much more than one.”
— Brian Armstrong
With a complete Bitcoin in your possession, you will leave with a phenomenal advantage over the majority of the world’s inhabitants if Bitcoin is mass adopted and the hyperbitcoinization of the world takes place.
Many make the mistake of only looking at the highest price Bitcoin has achieved year after year since its inception in 2009. These people find that the Bitcoin price has failed to reach again its historic high of $20K that was reached in December 2017.
Many therefore have the impression that since the end of 2017, the price of Bitcoin is no longer on the rise.
In fact, the real number that counts for Bitcoin is its yearly lowest price. And in this area, the price of Bitcoin has been rising steadily since 2010:
This chart shows us that the evolution of Bitcoin’s yearly lowest price follows an overall upward trend.
The evolution of the price of Bitcoin is cyclical and each cycle lasts 4 years starting with a Halving.
The year of a Halving marks the beginning of a bull market for Bitcoin, with the strongest increase concentrated in the N+1 year.
In the years N+2 and N+3 following a Halving, we usually see a correction in the price of Bitcoin but the lowest price is still above what it was before.
With the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in May 2020, Bitcoin price will necessarily exceed $10K this year.
The peak of Bitcoin price increase is expected in 2021.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin price could already be well over $20K by 2020.
The lowest price of Bitcoin since the beginning of the year at $6,950 could well be the lowest in the whole year 2020.
There is a strong probability that 2020 will be the last year with a Bitcoin priced below $10K.
Buying Bitcoin at this price therefore remains clearly affordable given the sharp increase that is expected in the coming months.
The strong bull market that Bitcoin is expected to experience in the coming months may well bring its price to between $20K and $30K by the end of 2020.
As I explained earlier, the biggest increase in the price of Bitcoin is usually in year N+1 after a Halving.
The year 2021 may well see Bitcoin price increase even more sharply to between $50K and $100K.
No one can predict the future, not even me, but all these figures regarding Bitcoin price are assumptions that should be seriously considered.
If Bitcoin price were to reach such a high level, it would become impossible for ordinary people to own a whole Bitcoin.
The year 2020 is therefore probably the last year to buy an entire Bitcoin.
Beyond this year, it will be too late to aim for full ownership of a Bitcoin because the price will be too high.
The more reasonable target will then be to aim for the possession of 0.1 BTC.
With the current distribution of Bitcoin, owning 0.1 BTC would put you among the 2 million richest addresses in the network, i.e. among the richest 7%.
All this is interesting but less than owning 1 Bitcoin in its entirety.
You still have the choice of what you want to do with Bitcoin for your future and it’s a real luxury considering what’s in store for the future.
It is up to you to make the best decision for your future so that you have no regrets afterwards when you no longer have a choice.